Chris CrockettMLB Predictions Spring Training Edition: NL Central
February 23rd 2012 02:12
Unlike yesterday's predictions, this division requires a lot less thought than the NL East. This is clearly a two horse race between the Brew Crew and the Pujols-less Cardinals. The Brewers won the division last year, with the Cards eeking into the playoffs on the last day of the regular season. There are plenty of story lines to follow in this division, so let's get on with the predictions, then dive into the analysis.
NL Central
1st St. Louis Cardinals 91-71
2nd Milwaukee Brewers 89-73
3rd Cincinnati Reds 85-77
4th Pittsburgh Pirates 76-86
5th Chicago Cubs 74-88
6th Houston Astros 55-107
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals lost the best player to grace the diamond in the new Busch Stadium and one of the greatest managers of all time in the same offseason. How in the world do they win this division? Pitching, that's how. The Cardinals are one of the few teams who have two legit Cy Young award contenders in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Wainwright is coming off of Tommy John surgery, but look for him to regain his 2010 form. Jake Westbrook and Jaime Garcia make excellent #3 and #4 options, while Kyle Lohse is no slouch at the 5th spot in the rotation. The Cardinals had a rough time in the beginning of last year with their closer situation, as they thought Ryan Franklin was the answer. Franklin was replaced by Fernando Salas and they haven't looked back. Their hitting will be the big question mark, as the giant void left by Pujols will be filled by an aging Lance Berkman. Berkman played spectacular last year, but how much of that was because of the fact he was in the same lineup as Pujols? We will find out early in the season if Berkman is still for real. The signing of Carlos Beltran will help some, but he's another guy at the back end of his career. Beltran was playing well in New York before being injury plagued in San Francisco. He and Berkman will have to be the guys to pick up the slack in the power department. Mike Matheny is getting his first crack at managing this year also, and it seems like the Cardinals have the majority of things working against them, but this is one team I will never count out as long as Carpenter and Wainwright are trotting out there every 5th day.
Breakout Player: Jon Jay, Jay has been a good player for the past couple years, batting .297 and .300 in 2010 and 2011 respectfully. I look for Jay to hit close to .300 again, but pick up his power numbers and cut down on his strikeouts. If he can be more patient at the plate he will be another dangerous bat to add to the good, but not great hitting of the Cardinals.
Milwaukee Brewers
The sole reason I do not have the Brewers winning the division is because of the Ryan Braun suspension. The reigning MVP is facing a 50 game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. There have been talks of his suspension being repealed, but I don't think that will happen. Oh. And one more reason; Prince Fielder. How do you replace production like that? You don't. Luckily, the Brewers have a 1-2 punch to rival the Cardinals in Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke. I give the upper hand to the Cardinals and their pitching, as I like Carpenter and Wainwright better, plus I believe Marcum, Wolf and their undetermined fifth starter do not match up to the depth the Cardinals have at the back end of their rotation. If the Brew Crew can hold their own without Braun, look for a strong charge at the end of the season much like they have done in the past, only to fall short by a few games. Aramis Ramirez will be a nice addition for them over at third base. No doubt there will be bad blood between the top two teams of the Central, as everybody still remembers what Nyjer Morgan tweeted last September: "Where still n 1st and I hope those crying birds injoy watching tha Crew in tha Playoffs!!!". Way to create bulletin board material Nyjer, and work on your spelling and grammar while you're at it. Morgan played excellent for the Pirates and Nationals, and I couldn't understand why nobody would want this guy on their team. After seeing his act last year in Milwaukee, I could see exactly why.
Breakout Player: Carlos Gomez, Do I think the Brewers completely sink in their Braun-less first third of the season? No, and a big reason will be Gomez. Carlos has the potential to be a great outfielder. He's got the speed, he's got the glove, he just hasn't had the bat everybody thought he would have. He was originally the main component in the trade from the Mets to the Twins in the Johan Santana deal. He then came to Milwaukee in the deal that sent J.J. Hardy to the Twins. The stolen bases and triples will be there for Carlos, but if he can raise his average to .280 he will be one of the most exciting players to watch in the entire MLB.
Cincinnati Reds
Here's a team that has loads of potential, and will be a forced to be reckoned with for years to come. I don't think this is the year they put it all together, but boy will they do some damage. Trading for Mat Latos was a great move, as he pitched at a very high level two years ago, and they dumped a headscratcher in Edinson Volquez. I thought Volquez was destined for great things, but an injury and a trip to the minors really shook his confidence. Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey and Leake round out a pitching staff full of promise, perhaps with the exception of Arroyo. I think the Reds can finish as a top 10 run scorer this year as Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and newly acquired Ryan Ludwick can all mash the ball. The question everybody is asking is what will they do with Aroldis Chapman? First he was a starter, then he was a reliever, now he's back to being a future starter again. The Reds will probably change their minds multiple times again, so who knows how this situation will pan out? What I do know for certain is Chapman has electric stuff. If he can ever command his fastball with even the slightest bit of consistency, he can be an excellent pitcher for years to come. Nothing but praise thus far for the Reds, but why are they on the outside looking in? They lack the experience that the Cardinals and Brewers have. Although I think they will miss the playoffs, there will be plenty to build on for 2013 and beyond.
Breakout Player: Zack Cozart, The starting shortstop gig is up for grabs in Cincinnati, but it seems like Cozart will get the nod. He only played in 11 games for the Reds last season, and although a small sample he did hit over .320 with 2 home runs. Cozart played well in the minors last year, and if he finds himself hitting in front of any of the Reds' big bats he will see plenty to hit with sluggers such as Votto and Bruce behind him in the lineup.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Clint Hurdle did an outstanding job last year as the Pirates manager. He found a way to work with what he had and finish with a respectable record for a franchise that is used to finishing at the bottom of the division. The pitching wasn't great for the Pirates last year, just about middle of the road. In fact, every starter with the exception of Kevin Correia (4.79) had an ERA below, or relatively close to 4.00. That's a great starting point. Closer Joel Hanrahan is lights out, and the Pirates should feel very comfortable going into the 9th inning with the lead. Their hitting has great potential. It is headlined with young Andrew McCutchen who will only get better. The Pirates were smart not to give up Garrett Jones for A.J. Burnett, as I feel he will have his best year yet as a pro. Look for Derrek Lee to make some waves and put together a solid season as you have come to expect from the former 40 HR guy. As I mentioned before, A.J. Burnett is now a Pirate and he escapes the bright lights of New York. This is the best thing that could have happened to A.J., as he was much maligned in the New York media. A change of scenery will be good for him as I think he puts up great numbers for an up and coming Pirates ballclub.
Breakout Player: Pedro Alvarez, Pedro was one of the most disappointing players last season in the entire league. After knocking out 16 longballs in just 95 games in 2010, he only managed to hit 4 in 74 games. Focusing more on his stellar 2010 year, he struck out 119 times as opposed to just 38 walks, so it's clear he is a free swinger. It's never okay to strike out that many times in just 95 games, especially if you aren't hitting at least 30 home runs per year. If Pedro can cut down on the strikeouts, be more selective at the plate and regain his confidence, look out. Alvarez has 30 home run potential at the hot corner for Pittsburgh.
Chicago Cubs
Sorry Cub fans, maybe next year? That's been a famous saying among fans in the Windy City for the past century and then some. If there is one thing to be excited about for Chicago its Starlin Castro. This guy is a stud, and he's not going anywhere any time soon. He will be in the same breath as Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki by season's end, and for good reason. Other than Starlin though, there's not much to get excited about. Trading for Anthony Rizzo was a nice addition for the future of the Cubs, but I doubt he will see much major league time this year, if any. There were talks of the Cubs trying to trade Matt Garza during the offseason, and we'll see if that effects his pitching at all. I don't think so, but he isn't a #1 starter to begin with. Look for Garza to post impressive strikeout numbers again, but his run support will fail him start after start. The Cubs will more than likely be sellers at the trade deadline, and Garza might be on the move then. The departure of Aramis Ramirez does not help the cause either. The Cubs will fall just short of the .500 mark for the season, marking another unsuccessful season for the cursed franchise.
Breakout Player: Bryan LaHair, This may be an unfamiliar name, so let me tell you about this kid. The past 3 years in AAA ball, he hit 26, 25, and 38 home runs. Last year he batted .331 with 109 RBI. That was good enough to peg him the frontrunner to start at first base for the Cubbies this year. Bryan has been in the majors before, but only a short stint with the Mariners and the Cubs last year. If Bryan takes the first base job away from prospect Anthony Rizzo, I think he'll run with it.
Houston Astros
Astro fans, if you're out there, I'm probably going to be stating the obvious here. Don't expect much, in fact don't expect anything from this team who is clearly rebuilding for the future. They traded away a great leadoff hitter to the Braves in Michael Bourn last year, as well as letting Berkman walk away. You know your club is in trouble when your starting third baseman is more popular for his identical name to a pretty good football player (Chris Johnson) than for his actual hitting ability. This is the year we will find out if the Astros got enough in return for Roy Oswalt, as J.A. Happ has no more excuses as he is entering his second full season with the 'Stros, after posting an awful 5.35 ERA last season. Wandy Rodriguez is far and away the best pitcher the Astros have, but don't be surprised to see him moved at the trade deadline with Carlos Lee not far behind. Youth is plentiful on this roster, and it will be apparent by the mistakes they will make and the record this club will post. This team is still years away from contention.
Breakout Player: Fernando Martinez, Maybe this is the year it all works out for F-Mart. The once highly-touted Mets prospect has never quite made his mark in the MLB, but he should get a chance to do so on this young, rebuilding team. Martinez has been more hype than anything else in his career, as he was given $1.4M at the age of 16 to become a part of the Mets organization. The long marriage between them ended this year as the Astros claimed him off waivers. If Martinez can stay healthy, which is a big if, he could be a solid major leaguer for the first time in his career.
NL Central
1st St. Louis Cardinals 91-71
2nd Milwaukee Brewers 89-73
3rd Cincinnati Reds 85-77
4th Pittsburgh Pirates 76-86
5th Chicago Cubs 74-88
6th Houston Astros 55-107
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals lost the best player to grace the diamond in the new Busch Stadium and one of the greatest managers of all time in the same offseason. How in the world do they win this division? Pitching, that's how. The Cardinals are one of the few teams who have two legit Cy Young award contenders in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Wainwright is coming off of Tommy John surgery, but look for him to regain his 2010 form. Jake Westbrook and Jaime Garcia make excellent #3 and #4 options, while Kyle Lohse is no slouch at the 5th spot in the rotation. The Cardinals had a rough time in the beginning of last year with their closer situation, as they thought Ryan Franklin was the answer. Franklin was replaced by Fernando Salas and they haven't looked back. Their hitting will be the big question mark, as the giant void left by Pujols will be filled by an aging Lance Berkman. Berkman played spectacular last year, but how much of that was because of the fact he was in the same lineup as Pujols? We will find out early in the season if Berkman is still for real. The signing of Carlos Beltran will help some, but he's another guy at the back end of his career. Beltran was playing well in New York before being injury plagued in San Francisco. He and Berkman will have to be the guys to pick up the slack in the power department. Mike Matheny is getting his first crack at managing this year also, and it seems like the Cardinals have the majority of things working against them, but this is one team I will never count out as long as Carpenter and Wainwright are trotting out there every 5th day.
Breakout Player: Jon Jay, Jay has been a good player for the past couple years, batting .297 and .300 in 2010 and 2011 respectfully. I look for Jay to hit close to .300 again, but pick up his power numbers and cut down on his strikeouts. If he can be more patient at the plate he will be another dangerous bat to add to the good, but not great hitting of the Cardinals.
Milwaukee Brewers
The sole reason I do not have the Brewers winning the division is because of the Ryan Braun suspension. The reigning MVP is facing a 50 game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. There have been talks of his suspension being repealed, but I don't think that will happen. Oh. And one more reason; Prince Fielder. How do you replace production like that? You don't. Luckily, the Brewers have a 1-2 punch to rival the Cardinals in Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke. I give the upper hand to the Cardinals and their pitching, as I like Carpenter and Wainwright better, plus I believe Marcum, Wolf and their undetermined fifth starter do not match up to the depth the Cardinals have at the back end of their rotation. If the Brew Crew can hold their own without Braun, look for a strong charge at the end of the season much like they have done in the past, only to fall short by a few games. Aramis Ramirez will be a nice addition for them over at third base. No doubt there will be bad blood between the top two teams of the Central, as everybody still remembers what Nyjer Morgan tweeted last September: "Where still n 1st and I hope those crying birds injoy watching tha Crew in tha Playoffs!!!". Way to create bulletin board material Nyjer, and work on your spelling and grammar while you're at it. Morgan played excellent for the Pirates and Nationals, and I couldn't understand why nobody would want this guy on their team. After seeing his act last year in Milwaukee, I could see exactly why.
Breakout Player: Carlos Gomez, Do I think the Brewers completely sink in their Braun-less first third of the season? No, and a big reason will be Gomez. Carlos has the potential to be a great outfielder. He's got the speed, he's got the glove, he just hasn't had the bat everybody thought he would have. He was originally the main component in the trade from the Mets to the Twins in the Johan Santana deal. He then came to Milwaukee in the deal that sent J.J. Hardy to the Twins. The stolen bases and triples will be there for Carlos, but if he can raise his average to .280 he will be one of the most exciting players to watch in the entire MLB.
Cincinnati Reds
Here's a team that has loads of potential, and will be a forced to be reckoned with for years to come. I don't think this is the year they put it all together, but boy will they do some damage. Trading for Mat Latos was a great move, as he pitched at a very high level two years ago, and they dumped a headscratcher in Edinson Volquez. I thought Volquez was destined for great things, but an injury and a trip to the minors really shook his confidence. Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey and Leake round out a pitching staff full of promise, perhaps with the exception of Arroyo. I think the Reds can finish as a top 10 run scorer this year as Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and newly acquired Ryan Ludwick can all mash the ball. The question everybody is asking is what will they do with Aroldis Chapman? First he was a starter, then he was a reliever, now he's back to being a future starter again. The Reds will probably change their minds multiple times again, so who knows how this situation will pan out? What I do know for certain is Chapman has electric stuff. If he can ever command his fastball with even the slightest bit of consistency, he can be an excellent pitcher for years to come. Nothing but praise thus far for the Reds, but why are they on the outside looking in? They lack the experience that the Cardinals and Brewers have. Although I think they will miss the playoffs, there will be plenty to build on for 2013 and beyond.
Breakout Player: Zack Cozart, The starting shortstop gig is up for grabs in Cincinnati, but it seems like Cozart will get the nod. He only played in 11 games for the Reds last season, and although a small sample he did hit over .320 with 2 home runs. Cozart played well in the minors last year, and if he finds himself hitting in front of any of the Reds' big bats he will see plenty to hit with sluggers such as Votto and Bruce behind him in the lineup.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Clint Hurdle did an outstanding job last year as the Pirates manager. He found a way to work with what he had and finish with a respectable record for a franchise that is used to finishing at the bottom of the division. The pitching wasn't great for the Pirates last year, just about middle of the road. In fact, every starter with the exception of Kevin Correia (4.79) had an ERA below, or relatively close to 4.00. That's a great starting point. Closer Joel Hanrahan is lights out, and the Pirates should feel very comfortable going into the 9th inning with the lead. Their hitting has great potential. It is headlined with young Andrew McCutchen who will only get better. The Pirates were smart not to give up Garrett Jones for A.J. Burnett, as I feel he will have his best year yet as a pro. Look for Derrek Lee to make some waves and put together a solid season as you have come to expect from the former 40 HR guy. As I mentioned before, A.J. Burnett is now a Pirate and he escapes the bright lights of New York. This is the best thing that could have happened to A.J., as he was much maligned in the New York media. A change of scenery will be good for him as I think he puts up great numbers for an up and coming Pirates ballclub.
Breakout Player: Pedro Alvarez, Pedro was one of the most disappointing players last season in the entire league. After knocking out 16 longballs in just 95 games in 2010, he only managed to hit 4 in 74 games. Focusing more on his stellar 2010 year, he struck out 119 times as opposed to just 38 walks, so it's clear he is a free swinger. It's never okay to strike out that many times in just 95 games, especially if you aren't hitting at least 30 home runs per year. If Pedro can cut down on the strikeouts, be more selective at the plate and regain his confidence, look out. Alvarez has 30 home run potential at the hot corner for Pittsburgh.
Chicago Cubs
Sorry Cub fans, maybe next year? That's been a famous saying among fans in the Windy City for the past century and then some. If there is one thing to be excited about for Chicago its Starlin Castro. This guy is a stud, and he's not going anywhere any time soon. He will be in the same breath as Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki by season's end, and for good reason. Other than Starlin though, there's not much to get excited about. Trading for Anthony Rizzo was a nice addition for the future of the Cubs, but I doubt he will see much major league time this year, if any. There were talks of the Cubs trying to trade Matt Garza during the offseason, and we'll see if that effects his pitching at all. I don't think so, but he isn't a #1 starter to begin with. Look for Garza to post impressive strikeout numbers again, but his run support will fail him start after start. The Cubs will more than likely be sellers at the trade deadline, and Garza might be on the move then. The departure of Aramis Ramirez does not help the cause either. The Cubs will fall just short of the .500 mark for the season, marking another unsuccessful season for the cursed franchise.
Breakout Player: Bryan LaHair, This may be an unfamiliar name, so let me tell you about this kid. The past 3 years in AAA ball, he hit 26, 25, and 38 home runs. Last year he batted .331 with 109 RBI. That was good enough to peg him the frontrunner to start at first base for the Cubbies this year. Bryan has been in the majors before, but only a short stint with the Mariners and the Cubs last year. If Bryan takes the first base job away from prospect Anthony Rizzo, I think he'll run with it.
Houston Astros
Astro fans, if you're out there, I'm probably going to be stating the obvious here. Don't expect much, in fact don't expect anything from this team who is clearly rebuilding for the future. They traded away a great leadoff hitter to the Braves in Michael Bourn last year, as well as letting Berkman walk away. You know your club is in trouble when your starting third baseman is more popular for his identical name to a pretty good football player (Chris Johnson) than for his actual hitting ability. This is the year we will find out if the Astros got enough in return for Roy Oswalt, as J.A. Happ has no more excuses as he is entering his second full season with the 'Stros, after posting an awful 5.35 ERA last season. Wandy Rodriguez is far and away the best pitcher the Astros have, but don't be surprised to see him moved at the trade deadline with Carlos Lee not far behind. Youth is plentiful on this roster, and it will be apparent by the mistakes they will make and the record this club will post. This team is still years away from contention.
Breakout Player: Fernando Martinez, Maybe this is the year it all works out for F-Mart. The once highly-touted Mets prospect has never quite made his mark in the MLB, but he should get a chance to do so on this young, rebuilding team. Martinez has been more hype than anything else in his career, as he was given $1.4M at the age of 16 to become a part of the Mets organization. The long marriage between them ended this year as the Astros claimed him off waivers. If Martinez can stay healthy, which is a big if, he could be a solid major leaguer for the first time in his career.
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