Chris CrockettMLB Predictions Spring Training Edition: NL East
February 22nd 2012 03:16
When the calendar turns to March, that denotes the one-month mark until the MLB season begins. It has been certainly a busy offseason, and that means there may be some unfamiliar faces playing October baseball.
I'm going to assume that the MLB implements the new 10-team playoff system, having two wildcard teams from each respective league rather than the traditional one wildcard per league as we have grown accustomed to.
This entry will focus on the NL East, as I will be analyzing the divisions one by one, culminating with a final prediction at the end of Spring Training including the World Series champion and award winners. I will also point out the one player that can break out in a big way this season.
National League East
1st Philadelphia Phillies (100-62)
2nd Atlanta Braves (93-69)
3rd Miami Marlins (88-74)
4th Washington Nationals (86-76)
5th New York Mets (74-88)
Phillies
Talk about a jam packed division, and that will bode well for others in the National League as the top four teams beat each other to bloody pulps. Nobody can bet against the Phillies here, beginning their second season with the best starting pitching in the MLB with Halladay, Lee, and Hamels. Their number four starter isn't too shabby either, as Vance Worley logged an ERA of 3.01 and an 11-3 record in 2011. Oswalt will be missing from the rotation this year, which gives Joe Blanton the 5th spot back. The addition of Papelbon and Chad Qualls should help provide an adequate bullpen for the Phillies to fend off the other three contending teams. The Phillies found themselves in a lot of close, low scoring games last year, and still logged 102 wins with a middle of the road offense. It was surprising to see them struggle, but Hunter Pence made excellent use of the wiffle-ball park they play in, blasting 11 home runs in just 54 games with the Phils. One more thing, a full season of Chase Utley spells trouble for opposing pitchers. Look for Utley to have an excellent bounce back year.
Breakout Player: Domonic Brown, a highly touted prospect that worked his way through the Phillies farm system, he only played in 56 games last year. Victorino and Pence are locks to start in the outfield for the Phils, and Brown will have to beat out John Mayberry for the final outfield spot. If he does, look for big things from this raw talent.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves never seem to go away. Heading into this year, I see them as the second best team in this division, even ahead of the Marlins who made a big splash this offseason at the expense of a fellow NL East team. They have one of the premiere leadoff hitters in all of the game in Michael Bourn, and with big bats in Uggla, Heyward, and McCann lurking behind him in the order, look for Bourn to score a ton of runs. Their pitching will eventually develop over the years into the best in the division as the Philadelphia rotation gets older and older and their young prospects harness their skills and translate that into major league success. They're not quite there, yet. You know what you get from Hudson, Tommy Hanson is a stud, so long as his recent car crash and concussion to go with it do not affect his health. Venters and Kimbrel were as good as it gets last year as far as 8th/9th inning guys. I expect more of the same this year from the Braves. If you find yourself down to these guys entering the 8th inning, its game, set, match.
Breakout Player: Jason Heyward, I wouldn't call this as much of a breakout as it is a resurgence. Heyward showed off his skills two years ago, batting .277 with 18 home runs and 72 RBI. Last year he was injured, but batted a meager .227, a 50 point decline from his 2010 campaign. If Heyward can stay healthy, look for upward of 25 home runs, close to 100 RBI and potentially a 20 steal season for young Jason.
Miami Marlins
What is it with Miami and their superiority complex they seem to have? Two years after the Heat make a big splash in the NBA signing LeBron James and Chris Bosh, the newly named Miami Marlins followed suit by bringing in the most exciting player in the MLB as well as the most entertaining and hot-headed manager. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez must find a way to co-exist, as we have already seen how badly an unhappy Hanley Ramirez can perform. The order in which Guillen sets the lineup will be interesting to pay attention to. He's got a speedster in Emilio Bonifacio, but it's clear Reyes will hit leadoff. I see Ozzie filling out the top half of the lineup card as follows: Reyes, Bonifacio, Hanley, Stanton. He could also go Reyes, Hanley, Stanton forming the most lethal 1-2-3 punch in this division, but sticking Bonifacio in the 2 hole will help him as he will get plenty to hit with Hanley waiting in the on deck circle. The pitching for this team is the giant question mark. Few teams will be able to match the firepower the Marlins will have, but ace Josh Johnson is coming off of a injury shortened season in which he looked like a frontrunner for the Cy Young award through his first 9 starts of the season. They have solid, middle of the rotation starters in Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, and Anibal Sanchez. These three guys are the key to the Marlins season, if they all pitch up to their potential, the Marlins could find themselves deep into October baseball. Do I think they do? No, and I also do not see Josh Johnson making more than 20 starts this year due to his history of injuries. This is a team of egos, and Hanley, Ozzie, and Carlos Zambrano will be sure to clash at some point during the year.
Breakout Player: Anibal Sanchez, Anibal has enjoyed success before, but nothing really sustained. He pitched a no-hitter in the latter part of the 2006 season, and flirted with another last year before giving up a hit in the 9th inning against the Rockies. Sanchez has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter, but he's never put it all together for a complete season before. Last year he started 32 games with a 3.55 ERA, 13-12 record, and a 1.34 WHIP. Look for the ERA to drop closer to 3.00, the wins to approach 17, the losses to drop to below or just about 10, and the WHIP to decline as well.
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals will be the best 4th place team in recent memory. I expect them to be the poor-mans version of the Phillies, with an excellent pitching staff but will have trouble scoring runs. If I told you after last season that the Nationals would be contenders in the NL East, you may have called me crazy. The additions of Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson bolsters their pitching staff and propels it into the upper echelon of rotations in the entire MLB. I don't think there is any question Strasburg does not miss a beat coming back from Tommy John surgery, look for him to develop into a pitcher similar to Justin Verlander. The rotation after Strasburg will be rounded out by Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, and Chien-Ming Wang. If Wang can regain his pre-shoulder injury form, he would be an excellent option as their fifth starter. You can't question the starting pitching, or the bullpen for that matter. The addition of Brad Lidge will help not only their team this year, but will serve as a mentor to closer of the future Drew Storen. Tyler Clippard is as good of a reliever as you will find in the MLB, and pitched lights out the entire 2011 season. Scoring runs consistently will be the biggest challenge for this club, but they certainly have the players to do it with Zimmerman, Morse, and a young middle infield of Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa. Jayson Werth must improve dramatically not only to live up to his $100M contract, but to help these Nationals contend for a potential wild card berth.
Breakout Player: Bryce Harper, There are no guarantees Bryce even makes the team out of spring training, but I'm going to say that he does and makes an immediate impact on this team. The only solid outfielder on this team is Werth, and beyond that there is really nobody to challenge Harper for playing time if he does make the team out of spring. Here's an interesting tidbit. Harper got off to an unusual slow start in single A ball last year. He visited an eye doctor who told him that his eyes were one of the worst he had ever seen. After being given contact lenses, he hit a ridiculous .480 with 7 home runs, 10 doubles and 23 RBI in the next 20 games. Of course that is against single A pitching, but there's no reason to think he won't be able to be a force in the middle of the Nationals lineup this season only at age 19. He's a prodigy.
New York Mets
What a tumultuous offseason for the Mets. Amid a Bernie Madoff fueled lawsuit against them, they lost their best player to the Marlins during the offseason. Johan Santana is a big question mark, but it seems like he will be ready by opening day, if not shortly thereafter. The rest of the rotation is mediocre at best, as their #2 starter Jonathon Niese is better suited as a #3 option. Pelfrey hasn't panned out the way the Mets had hoped, the knuckleball specialist R.A. Dickey will surely be inconsistent and Dillion Gee is certainly a work in progress. David Wright may find himself wearing a different uniform by the time the trade deadline rolls around, as the Mets will soon be entering full on rebuilding mode. It'll be hard to move Johan for prospects because of the contract that he comes with, and the Mets will most certainly not be willing to eat any of the remaining money as they are cash-strapped at the moment. Fear not Mets fans, for there is a light at the end of the tunnel. If Johan stays with the club until his contract expires (2014 is his last year), he will more than likely top a rotation that will be filled out by Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Jennry Mejia, and a vastly improved Dillion Gee within the next few years. There's alot of variables in the equation for the Mets' success, but they have some of the best pitching prospects in the league, and will more than likely add to it when it comes time to deal players such as Wright. I think the Mets will perform better than they should this year, as their hitting and bullpen is promising, but they are at a disadvantage because they play in one of the toughest divisions in baseball.
Breakout Player: Ruben Tejada, At only 22 years old, the Mets had their shortstop of the future play in 96 games last year, hitting an impressive .284. The Mets knew that Jose Reyes was a longshot to stay in New York, which is why they wanted to get Tejada major league experience last year. Will Tejada ever be the player that Reyes was and still is? No. Can he ease the pain of Mets fans everywhere as he, dare I say, becomes the new face of the franchise after Wright departs? Absolutely. He won't have the power or speed of Reyes, but he's more patient at the plate and knows how to work the count. His fielding ability is terrific and could potentially be a future gold glover.
This is the Phillies division to lose. I don't see them squandering this division title away as they have been in this position so many times in the past. I can see the Braves, Marlins, or Nationals grabbing a wild card spot, but I give the early, slight edge to the Bravos.
Tomorrow look for my analysis on the NL Central; Can the Cardinals overcome the loss of Pujols? Braun and his potential suspension, and 100 something years and counting for the Cubbies.
I'm going to assume that the MLB implements the new 10-team playoff system, having two wildcard teams from each respective league rather than the traditional one wildcard per league as we have grown accustomed to.
This entry will focus on the NL East, as I will be analyzing the divisions one by one, culminating with a final prediction at the end of Spring Training including the World Series champion and award winners. I will also point out the one player that can break out in a big way this season.
National League East
1st Philadelphia Phillies (100-62)
2nd Atlanta Braves (93-69)
3rd Miami Marlins (88-74)
4th Washington Nationals (86-76)
5th New York Mets (74-88)
Phillies
Talk about a jam packed division, and that will bode well for others in the National League as the top four teams beat each other to bloody pulps. Nobody can bet against the Phillies here, beginning their second season with the best starting pitching in the MLB with Halladay, Lee, and Hamels. Their number four starter isn't too shabby either, as Vance Worley logged an ERA of 3.01 and an 11-3 record in 2011. Oswalt will be missing from the rotation this year, which gives Joe Blanton the 5th spot back. The addition of Papelbon and Chad Qualls should help provide an adequate bullpen for the Phillies to fend off the other three contending teams. The Phillies found themselves in a lot of close, low scoring games last year, and still logged 102 wins with a middle of the road offense. It was surprising to see them struggle, but Hunter Pence made excellent use of the wiffle-ball park they play in, blasting 11 home runs in just 54 games with the Phils. One more thing, a full season of Chase Utley spells trouble for opposing pitchers. Look for Utley to have an excellent bounce back year.
Breakout Player: Domonic Brown, a highly touted prospect that worked his way through the Phillies farm system, he only played in 56 games last year. Victorino and Pence are locks to start in the outfield for the Phils, and Brown will have to beat out John Mayberry for the final outfield spot. If he does, look for big things from this raw talent.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves never seem to go away. Heading into this year, I see them as the second best team in this division, even ahead of the Marlins who made a big splash this offseason at the expense of a fellow NL East team. They have one of the premiere leadoff hitters in all of the game in Michael Bourn, and with big bats in Uggla, Heyward, and McCann lurking behind him in the order, look for Bourn to score a ton of runs. Their pitching will eventually develop over the years into the best in the division as the Philadelphia rotation gets older and older and their young prospects harness their skills and translate that into major league success. They're not quite there, yet. You know what you get from Hudson, Tommy Hanson is a stud, so long as his recent car crash and concussion to go with it do not affect his health. Venters and Kimbrel were as good as it gets last year as far as 8th/9th inning guys. I expect more of the same this year from the Braves. If you find yourself down to these guys entering the 8th inning, its game, set, match.
Breakout Player: Jason Heyward, I wouldn't call this as much of a breakout as it is a resurgence. Heyward showed off his skills two years ago, batting .277 with 18 home runs and 72 RBI. Last year he was injured, but batted a meager .227, a 50 point decline from his 2010 campaign. If Heyward can stay healthy, look for upward of 25 home runs, close to 100 RBI and potentially a 20 steal season for young Jason.
Miami Marlins
What is it with Miami and their superiority complex they seem to have? Two years after the Heat make a big splash in the NBA signing LeBron James and Chris Bosh, the newly named Miami Marlins followed suit by bringing in the most exciting player in the MLB as well as the most entertaining and hot-headed manager. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez must find a way to co-exist, as we have already seen how badly an unhappy Hanley Ramirez can perform. The order in which Guillen sets the lineup will be interesting to pay attention to. He's got a speedster in Emilio Bonifacio, but it's clear Reyes will hit leadoff. I see Ozzie filling out the top half of the lineup card as follows: Reyes, Bonifacio, Hanley, Stanton. He could also go Reyes, Hanley, Stanton forming the most lethal 1-2-3 punch in this division, but sticking Bonifacio in the 2 hole will help him as he will get plenty to hit with Hanley waiting in the on deck circle. The pitching for this team is the giant question mark. Few teams will be able to match the firepower the Marlins will have, but ace Josh Johnson is coming off of a injury shortened season in which he looked like a frontrunner for the Cy Young award through his first 9 starts of the season. They have solid, middle of the rotation starters in Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, and Anibal Sanchez. These three guys are the key to the Marlins season, if they all pitch up to their potential, the Marlins could find themselves deep into October baseball. Do I think they do? No, and I also do not see Josh Johnson making more than 20 starts this year due to his history of injuries. This is a team of egos, and Hanley, Ozzie, and Carlos Zambrano will be sure to clash at some point during the year.
Breakout Player: Anibal Sanchez, Anibal has enjoyed success before, but nothing really sustained. He pitched a no-hitter in the latter part of the 2006 season, and flirted with another last year before giving up a hit in the 9th inning against the Rockies. Sanchez has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter, but he's never put it all together for a complete season before. Last year he started 32 games with a 3.55 ERA, 13-12 record, and a 1.34 WHIP. Look for the ERA to drop closer to 3.00, the wins to approach 17, the losses to drop to below or just about 10, and the WHIP to decline as well.
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals will be the best 4th place team in recent memory. I expect them to be the poor-mans version of the Phillies, with an excellent pitching staff but will have trouble scoring runs. If I told you after last season that the Nationals would be contenders in the NL East, you may have called me crazy. The additions of Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson bolsters their pitching staff and propels it into the upper echelon of rotations in the entire MLB. I don't think there is any question Strasburg does not miss a beat coming back from Tommy John surgery, look for him to develop into a pitcher similar to Justin Verlander. The rotation after Strasburg will be rounded out by Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, and Chien-Ming Wang. If Wang can regain his pre-shoulder injury form, he would be an excellent option as their fifth starter. You can't question the starting pitching, or the bullpen for that matter. The addition of Brad Lidge will help not only their team this year, but will serve as a mentor to closer of the future Drew Storen. Tyler Clippard is as good of a reliever as you will find in the MLB, and pitched lights out the entire 2011 season. Scoring runs consistently will be the biggest challenge for this club, but they certainly have the players to do it with Zimmerman, Morse, and a young middle infield of Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa. Jayson Werth must improve dramatically not only to live up to his $100M contract, but to help these Nationals contend for a potential wild card berth.
Breakout Player: Bryce Harper, There are no guarantees Bryce even makes the team out of spring training, but I'm going to say that he does and makes an immediate impact on this team. The only solid outfielder on this team is Werth, and beyond that there is really nobody to challenge Harper for playing time if he does make the team out of spring. Here's an interesting tidbit. Harper got off to an unusual slow start in single A ball last year. He visited an eye doctor who told him that his eyes were one of the worst he had ever seen. After being given contact lenses, he hit a ridiculous .480 with 7 home runs, 10 doubles and 23 RBI in the next 20 games. Of course that is against single A pitching, but there's no reason to think he won't be able to be a force in the middle of the Nationals lineup this season only at age 19. He's a prodigy.
New York Mets
What a tumultuous offseason for the Mets. Amid a Bernie Madoff fueled lawsuit against them, they lost their best player to the Marlins during the offseason. Johan Santana is a big question mark, but it seems like he will be ready by opening day, if not shortly thereafter. The rest of the rotation is mediocre at best, as their #2 starter Jonathon Niese is better suited as a #3 option. Pelfrey hasn't panned out the way the Mets had hoped, the knuckleball specialist R.A. Dickey will surely be inconsistent and Dillion Gee is certainly a work in progress. David Wright may find himself wearing a different uniform by the time the trade deadline rolls around, as the Mets will soon be entering full on rebuilding mode. It'll be hard to move Johan for prospects because of the contract that he comes with, and the Mets will most certainly not be willing to eat any of the remaining money as they are cash-strapped at the moment. Fear not Mets fans, for there is a light at the end of the tunnel. If Johan stays with the club until his contract expires (2014 is his last year), he will more than likely top a rotation that will be filled out by Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Jennry Mejia, and a vastly improved Dillion Gee within the next few years. There's alot of variables in the equation for the Mets' success, but they have some of the best pitching prospects in the league, and will more than likely add to it when it comes time to deal players such as Wright. I think the Mets will perform better than they should this year, as their hitting and bullpen is promising, but they are at a disadvantage because they play in one of the toughest divisions in baseball.
Breakout Player: Ruben Tejada, At only 22 years old, the Mets had their shortstop of the future play in 96 games last year, hitting an impressive .284. The Mets knew that Jose Reyes was a longshot to stay in New York, which is why they wanted to get Tejada major league experience last year. Will Tejada ever be the player that Reyes was and still is? No. Can he ease the pain of Mets fans everywhere as he, dare I say, becomes the new face of the franchise after Wright departs? Absolutely. He won't have the power or speed of Reyes, but he's more patient at the plate and knows how to work the count. His fielding ability is terrific and could potentially be a future gold glover.
This is the Phillies division to lose. I don't see them squandering this division title away as they have been in this position so many times in the past. I can see the Braves, Marlins, or Nationals grabbing a wild card spot, but I give the early, slight edge to the Bravos.
Tomorrow look for my analysis on the NL Central; Can the Cardinals overcome the loss of Pujols? Braun and his potential suspension, and 100 something years and counting for the Cubbies.
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