Joey O'ConnorNo October Baseball, Again...
October 5th 2008 22:44
Last week may have been the worst of my sports-watching life. Since the Giants had their bye, the only thing for me to watch last weekend was the Mets yet again missing their chance to get into the playoffs.
This entire week I refused to watch baseball. The Mets had a better lineup than the Phillies and better starting pitching than the Brewers. The only thing that prevented them from beating either of these teams for a playoff spot was their epically bad bullpen.
Not only did the bullpen completely screw the Mets this year, but it makes it tough on the organization to build for next year. They really do not need too much help in their lineup or starting rotation. If they move Daniel Murphy to second, which comes more naturally to him than left field, their lineup is pretty solid at every position. And even without Ollie Perez, who is a free agent, their starting rotation is very good with Santana, Pelfrey, Maine, and Neise looked good at the end of this year too.
This leaves Omar Minaya and the Mets with the problem of the bullpen. And this poses such a gargantuan problem because the pen is such a crap-shoot. Two years ago the Mets had a terrific bullpen. Four of the pitchers from that year were still with the team this year: Billy Wagner, Duaner Sanchez, Aaron Heilman, and Pedro Feliciano. All four of these players played well in the '05-'06 and '06-'07 seasons, but their statistics were much worse this season.
In the two season from '05-'07, Wagner, Sanchez, Heilman, and Feliciano threw an average of 285.3 combined innings with a 2.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Being the four main guys coming out of the bullpen, these are exceptional numbers. This year, however, their combined numbers were
much worse. In 234.2 innings pitched, they managed a 3.97 combined ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The horrendousness of these numbers is a bit deceiving, however, because the combined ERA is only one run worse than the two previous years. But the important thing to point out here is that they pitched a combined 50 innings less than they had averaged over the two previous years and their ERA was still that much higher (we can extrapolate that they would have given up even more runs had they matched their typical IP over the '05-'06 and '06-07 seasons).
These numbers show just how much luck goes into building a bullpen. The Mets have built their bullpen around these four players over the last three years; and, up to this year, it had been going great. As good as their numbers were over the two previous years though, I think that the Mets need to completely revamp their bullpen.
Now many people might say that the Mets were just unlucky that so many guys in their bullpen had bad years at the same time. But I do not think that that was the problem. I think the problem was the injury to Billy Wagner. I have not found the statistics on it (and do not have the time to do the research myself) but the Mets' bullpen seemed to perform much better before Wagner's injury this year.
After he went down, the Mets were left without a guy who had the stuff to be the closer. Two years ago Sanchez may have been able to step up into the role but after he missed all of last year, he hasn't been the same. There is a certain psyche that a pitcher needs to be able to come into the clutch situations which closers are thrown into; and the Mets just did not have that go-to guy after Wagner went down.
Fixing this problem is not an easy task, either. There really are not that many options in free agency this offseason to fill the role that Billy Wagner has left vacant. Frankie Rodriguez is the best reliever available but I do not think he is going to be worth the salary that he will be demanding. His save numbers this year have been inflated because he got so many chances.
The list is short, though. Other than K-Rod, the best closing prospects for next year consist of Brian Fuentes and Trevor Hoffman. I think the best long-term option for the Mets is to bring up Eddie Kuntz. He's got closer-type stuff, pitched decent in his short major-league stint this year, and has 27 save in the minors.
Either way the Mets will be hard pressed to resolve their bullpen issues this offseason. If there is one lesson to take away from this season, though, it is to not ignore this problem. As we learned this year, you could have four of the best hitters in the league along with a very good starting rotation but if you don't have the bullpen to close the games out; you'll end up sitting at home, again, in October.
This entire week I refused to watch baseball. The Mets had a better lineup than the Phillies and better starting pitching than the Brewers. The only thing that prevented them from beating either of these teams for a playoff spot was their epically bad bullpen.
This leaves Omar Minaya and the Mets with the problem of the bullpen. And this poses such a gargantuan problem because the pen is such a crap-shoot. Two years ago the Mets had a terrific bullpen. Four of the pitchers from that year were still with the team this year: Billy Wagner, Duaner Sanchez, Aaron Heilman, and Pedro Feliciano. All four of these players played well in the '05-'06 and '06-'07 seasons, but their statistics were much worse this season.
In the two season from '05-'07, Wagner, Sanchez, Heilman, and Feliciano threw an average of 285.3 combined innings with a 2.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Being the four main guys coming out of the bullpen, these are exceptional numbers. This year, however, their combined numbers were
These numbers show just how much luck goes into building a bullpen. The Mets have built their bullpen around these four players over the last three years; and, up to this year, it had been going great. As good as their numbers were over the two previous years though, I think that the Mets need to completely revamp their bullpen.
Now many people might say that the Mets were just unlucky that so many guys in their bullpen had bad years at the same time. But I do not think that that was the problem. I think the problem was the injury to Billy Wagner. I have not found the statistics on it (and do not have the time to do the research myself) but the Mets' bullpen seemed to perform much better before Wagner's injury this year.
After he went down, the Mets were left without a guy who had the stuff to be the closer. Two years ago Sanchez may have been able to step up into the role but after he missed all of last year, he hasn't been the same. There is a certain psyche that a pitcher needs to be able to come into the clutch situations which closers are thrown into; and the Mets just did not have that go-to guy after Wagner went down.
Fixing this problem is not an easy task, either. There really are not that many options in free agency this offseason to fill the role that Billy Wagner has left vacant. Frankie Rodriguez is the best reliever available but I do not think he is going to be worth the salary that he will be demanding. His save numbers this year have been inflated because he got so many chances.
The list is short, though. Other than K-Rod, the best closing prospects for next year consist of Brian Fuentes and Trevor Hoffman. I think the best long-term option for the Mets is to bring up Eddie Kuntz. He's got closer-type stuff, pitched decent in his short major-league stint this year, and has 27 save in the minors.
Either way the Mets will be hard pressed to resolve their bullpen issues this offseason. If there is one lesson to take away from this season, though, it is to not ignore this problem. As we learned this year, you could have four of the best hitters in the league along with a very good starting rotation but if you don't have the bullpen to close the games out; you'll end up sitting at home, again, in October.
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