Chuck HTCFB Stat Man Stands Up & Wants To Be Heard On 2010 Red Sox Chances
July 29th 2010 13:03
The TCFB Stat Man got rip-raving pissed yesterday that I used my own stat in the "Numbers Don't Lie" segment and that Butch Stearns' people got their hands on it and are going public with the Bay/McDonald comparison live on the air at the Pulse Network.
Needless to say, the Stat Man felt compelled to prove his worth in another area and threw aside the scantily clad females on the island he's vacationing and sent in this tremendous guest post on why he feels the Red Sox are still very much alive in this 2010 race. Even though I'm in the camp of "wait til next year" at this point, Stat Man presents his case nicely, & quite honestly, I hope he's right. Check it out below...
The popular term for saying your team is still in it when things are down is being a Kool-Aid drinker. Regarding the Red Sox, I am the former, but I’ll never be the latter. I’m a realist – it’s just not everyone can see what’s in front of the eyes (little known fact, but it was actually 'Flavor-Aid' in Jonestown, fyi...) I'm not following Sox marketing, I'm following logic, nobody has 5 strong (understatement) pitchers right now. Sox do. Nobody has fresh rested All-Stars coming off DL rested. Sox do. And, indisputably, nobody has as deep an in-game battle-tested, bench as the Red Sox.
Granted the Sox need mid-relief help only a slightly less than any swimmer in Chatham playing with seals needs a chain-mail swimsuit, but in reality, the Flavor-Aiders may very well be those not willing to stay on board the Red Sox train. It’s like local sports-people are deathly afraid of being called ‘homers’; though, since sports-talk radio is designed to get listener responses, I’m not sure how it is that this will-win forest is being missed for the Sox-can’t-do-it trees.
What team is more likely to win the Wild Card really? The no-name Red Sox (excluding Ortiz) caught the Rays & surpassed by two games when Boston was 8 games back (a 10 game turnaround). Of course, the Sox lost ground after auditioning for MASH II/Injury Boogaloo – Scenes from Boston. But, guess what? I guarantee you most of MLB expected (and hoped) they’d lose a lot more.
The Red Sox, with their rag-tag lineup card, have lost fewer games in the standings to the Rays than TB did to the Sox. The PawSox kept the Red Sox alive by populating virtually every position. Except First base (and maybe including, but I’m not looking it up), every spot on the Red Sox has been played by an Interstate 95 frequent driver this year.
It’s almost stylish to say the Sox can’t do it. That statement is made all the easier by not having high-profile, flashy big number players on this team.
***Take your Longoria, because this year, statistically, Beltre is even with him. A-Rod is not even close.
***Lowrie is now doing an admirable job filling in for Pedroia – then we have a well-rested Pedroia.
***Youk is the best 1B in the AL, bar none.
***Scutaro has been solid all year and his bat has won games.
***Victor Martinez has the most pop in his bat of any catcher and his D has noticeably improved.
***Ellsbury is coming back, but the Sox came back without him before, so that should be an extra plus. I expect a week of, ‘get the new Ellsbury-logoed skirt’ for about a week, then it’ll be an afterthought.
***Right this moment, the Sox have the best 1-4 pitchers in the game, with even dice-K stepping way up these days. I’d take our #4 over 95% of the other league’s #1. Likely more than that.
***Bard is lights out.
***Say what you want about ERA, but Paps has only three blown saves.
If Yawkey Way can get mid-relief or if internally a mid-reliever comes around, there’s not a team that can beat the Red Sox.
Stat Man
~TCFB~
Needless to say, the Stat Man felt compelled to prove his worth in another area and threw aside the scantily clad females on the island he's vacationing and sent in this tremendous guest post on why he feels the Red Sox are still very much alive in this 2010 race. Even though I'm in the camp of "wait til next year" at this point, Stat Man presents his case nicely, & quite honestly, I hope he's right. Check it out below...
TCFB Stat Man's Case For The 2010 Red Sox
The popular term for saying your team is still in it when things are down is being a Kool-Aid drinker. Regarding the Red Sox, I am the former, but I’ll never be the latter. I’m a realist – it’s just not everyone can see what’s in front of the eyes (little known fact, but it was actually 'Flavor-Aid' in Jonestown, fyi...) I'm not following Sox marketing, I'm following logic, nobody has 5 strong (understatement) pitchers right now. Sox do. Nobody has fresh rested All-Stars coming off DL rested. Sox do. And, indisputably, nobody has as deep an in-game battle-tested, bench as the Red Sox.
Granted the Sox need mid-relief help only a slightly less than any swimmer in Chatham playing with seals needs a chain-mail swimsuit, but in reality, the Flavor-Aiders may very well be those not willing to stay on board the Red Sox train. It’s like local sports-people are deathly afraid of being called ‘homers’; though, since sports-talk radio is designed to get listener responses, I’m not sure how it is that this will-win forest is being missed for the Sox-can’t-do-it trees.
What team is more likely to win the Wild Card really? The no-name Red Sox (excluding Ortiz) caught the Rays & surpassed by two games when Boston was 8 games back (a 10 game turnaround). Of course, the Sox lost ground after auditioning for MASH II/Injury Boogaloo – Scenes from Boston. But, guess what? I guarantee you most of MLB expected (and hoped) they’d lose a lot more.
The Red Sox, with their rag-tag lineup card, have lost fewer games in the standings to the Rays than TB did to the Sox. The PawSox kept the Red Sox alive by populating virtually every position. Except First base (and maybe including, but I’m not looking it up), every spot on the Red Sox has been played by an Interstate 95 frequent driver this year.
It’s almost stylish to say the Sox can’t do it. That statement is made all the easier by not having high-profile, flashy big number players on this team.
***Take your Longoria, because this year, statistically, Beltre is even with him. A-Rod is not even close.
***Lowrie is now doing an admirable job filling in for Pedroia – then we have a well-rested Pedroia.
***Youk is the best 1B in the AL, bar none.
***Scutaro has been solid all year and his bat has won games.
***Victor Martinez has the most pop in his bat of any catcher and his D has noticeably improved.
***Ellsbury is coming back, but the Sox came back without him before, so that should be an extra plus. I expect a week of, ‘get the new Ellsbury-logoed skirt’ for about a week, then it’ll be an afterthought.
***Right this moment, the Sox have the best 1-4 pitchers in the game, with even dice-K stepping way up these days. I’d take our #4 over 95% of the other league’s #1. Likely more than that.
***Bard is lights out.
***Say what you want about ERA, but Paps has only three blown saves.
If Yawkey Way can get mid-relief or if internally a mid-reliever comes around, there’s not a team that can beat the Red Sox.
Stat Man
~TCFB~
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Comment by Anonymous
Comment by Stat Man
Y'know, the biggest X Factor the Sox have had in past years is the fans, and that's why I'm trying to encourage getting the cart before the horse. Instead of waiting for the Sox to catch up, EXPECT them to catch up and be in there (just close your eyes when Nokey-Dokey comes in).
As fans, sometimes a leap of faith is hard (and as I've detailed, I don't really think it's a 'leap') for fear of being burned, but I refuse to believe that positive vibes don't leak through to the team through existential osmosis...
... granted I may have a tougher time backing that one up with stats.
Comment by Anonymous
Murray
Comment by Winless In Seattle
UnSportsman
Comment by Stat Man
and, thanks for adding perspective! The Sox have the 4th best record in all of MLB, though, in-town they still get knocked because it's 3rd-best in their division. To borrow from the Pats fearless leader, it is what it is.
This weekend's action was anything but boring, though it doesn't help when your closer induces some of the excitement. But, while understanding the threshold of excitement the sox still bring, either way they cobble together wins, I'll take it.
And, since the first day of their West Coast trip to now, the Sox are playing .643 ball. Most of that time was while Sox All-Stars were still licking their wounds. At that pace, and with the premise that TB & NY stay ojn their season long winning %, the Sox would overtake the Rays or Yanks by mid-Sept.
Wanna know why this team IS exciting to me? Because everyone thinks they're boring and won't win -- pretty sure noone on the Sox have received that memo.
Comment by Stat Man
and, thanks for adding perspective! The Sox have the 4th best record in all of MLB, though, in-town they still get knocked because it's 3rd-best in their division. To borrow from the Pats fearless leader, it is what it is.
This weekend's action was anything but boring, though it doesn't help when your closer induces some of the excitement. But, while understanding the threshold of excitement the sox still bring, either way they cobble together wins, I'll take it.
And, since the first day of their West Coast trip to now, the Sox are playing .643 ball. Most of that time was while Sox All-Stars were still licking their wounds. At that pace, and with the premise that TB & NY stay ojn their season long winning %, the Sox would overtake the Rays or Yanks by mid-Sept.
Wanna know why this team IS exciting to me? Because everyone thinks they're boring and won't win -- pretty sure noone on the Sox have received that memo.